The Sports Brewery

Degenerate Advice on Betting The Super Bowl

Posted on 04. Feb, 2010 at 9:09 am by The Big Cat in Gambling, NFL Football, Playoffs

By the time this is posted early Thursday morning, my last one hundred and seventy plus minutes have been pathetically wasted on watching the 2007 WCCOP (World Championships of Online Poker), Seven Card Stud High/Low Split final table on YouTube. One of the many, many drawbacks to being a degenerate, problem gambler, is the excruciating long, two weeks between Championship Sunday of the NFL Playoffs and The Super Bowl, (it has officially become a National Holiday Right?). Which provides more than enough time, to plot revenge upon my bookie; Payback for all the financial beatings, which were handed out during the long course of the football season. My state of complete desperation for action led to me intently staring at a computer screen for over two long hours, watching a two-year-old video of an online poker game. Which happened to be accompanied with extremely riveting live audio commentary and insight, by legendary Barry Greenstein. So here at last, the definitive gambling guide for Super Bowl XLIV!

Last years Super Bowl between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Arizona Cardinals was one of the most heavily bet games of all time, with over 81.5 million dollars being legally wagered and accounted for by the Nevada Gaming Industry. The illegal numbers, according to a friend who, may or may not accept bets, apparently weren’t too shabby either. Having said that, this year’s game has been predicted to absolutely destroy last year’s numbers. Between Manning vs. Brees, the revival of New Orleans, and Archie Manning some estimations see that number possibly reaching over 100 million dollars. Easily making this years game the most wagered, single game in the history of Nevada sports gambling.

Opening with Indianapolis as a 3.5-point favorite on Monday, the line was quickly bet up to –7.5 at most online and Nevada Casinos, by the end of the weekend, . As of right now, the number comfortably rests with Cots –4.5, a very solid value play. The Over/Under has settled fairly consistently across the board in the 56.5 range, with little to no movement. Expect the line to have at least one last spike left in it during the next couple of days, as the weekend kickoff draws nearer. With the line coming back down to -4.5, it means that the sharks and wise guys have basically finished playing all of their money. Just leaving the last second playing general public, which is believed to heavily favor the Colts, to put a lot of money into play. Meaning the line will probably bump back up a few points and settle around Colts –6.5 before Sunday’s scheduled kickoff.

Coming off the second half beat-down the Colts gave the Jets, and combined with having the indisputable best player in the game, and arguably the best quarterback of all-time in Peyton Manning, Indianapolis looks like the overwhelming smart play. Then throw in how terrible New Orleans played against the Vikings, and top it off with the Colts record against the spread, a terrific 12-5-1. With two of those losses coming when they decided to sit their starters. With the line currently sitting at 4.5, there is more than enough value to confidently play the Colts here. Meaning, I highly recommend betting the house, farm, car, and kids tuitions money. It’s a complete guaranteed, absolute lock!

Conversely, factor in a Saints team that is only 9-9 against the spread fort he season. Which also happened to close out the season a meager 3-6, respectively, all even after considering their insanely hot start. During which they went a perfect 6-0. Simply put, there is just absolutely no value left in playing the Saints. If any one out there is contemplating playing New Orleans, look to parlay the money line with the over, as a Saints win would most likely be in a shootout. Also think about insuring the bet against the spread with the Colts, would be even smarter of a play yet.

For those of you who pounced on the line early, the even smarter play here is buying insurance, and hammering the attempted double cover. In fact, if the line manages to crawl back up to the –6.5 range that is exactly what should be done. All in all feel very comfortable playing the Colts here, and don’t let yourself be talked out of easy money because the long wait let to many thoughts cloud your judgment. Simply throw down your wallet back in your bookies face and take the colts. Along with all of your seasons losses, and his entire bankroll, plus tax of course!

**Part Two Covering Prop Bets Coming Tomorrow!

-Also for more info on gambling and the sports betting industry read ESPN Insider Chad Millman’s Blog

Tags: Drew Brees, Gambling, Handicapping, Indianapolis Colts, New Orleasns Saints, NFL, Peyton Manning, Point Spread, Super Bowl XLIV