The Sports Brewery

April 29, 2006 – The NFL Draft

Posted on 28. Feb, 2010 at 3:01 am by Meerkat in Football, NFL Draft, NFL Football

New York, NY … Radio City Music Hall … Paul Tagliabue strolls up to the podium to announce the first pick of the NFL Draft.

With the first pick … the Houston Texans select DE Mario Williams, North Carolina State.

mins later …

With the second pick … the New Orleans Saints select RB Reggie Bush, USC.

mins later …

With the third pick … the Tennessee Titans select QB Vince Young, Texas.

Texans GM Charlie Casserly (2002-2006) was under tremendous scrutiny in the eyes of Texan fans regarding making the right choice with the overall 1st pick.  Austin fans screamed for Longhorns hero QB Vince Young to be the guy, because it seemed that QB David Carr (2002 draft) was not the answer.  But there was also the division of Houston fans that desired the electrifying kid from Southern Cal, Heisman Trophy-winning Reggie Bush.  The next Gale Sayers he was dubbed, by some.  How could Houston pass on such a dynamic RB that could also shred kick coverage teams?

Personally, I didn’t see Vince Young as a QB worthy of taking that high, he seemed to me as a taller Mike Vick.  A guy that can run away from any defender but not the pocket passer a team needs to get to the big game.  I’ll admit though, he played damn well his first season, kinda like Big Ben’s first season in Pittsburgh.  Ya know … let the defense win ball games, make sure the QB doesn’t screw things up.

2006 was a terrible year for QBs.  Jay Cutler was the only REAL pocket-passing gun-slinger that was top-ten worthy. There was also that guy whom was defeated by Young in the National Championship game, Matt Leinart.  Leinart had the golden boy image at USC: tall, winner, pocket-passer, semi-celeb … but with an average arm.  Other QBs in the draft: Kellen Clemens, Tarvaris Jackson, Charlie Whitehurst, Brodie Croyle, Brad Smith … on and on.

So naturally, in a bad QB draft, teams reach for guys because the position is weighted so heavily.  From what I heard, the Titans owner wanted Vince Young, so coach Fisher had to select him.  Why wouldn’t a defensive/run-first minded Fisher select OT D’Brickashaw Ferguson (jets) or DT Haloti Ngata (ravens) in that spot?  And Tennessee still had Steve McNair at QB.  Yeah, McNair was banged up and getting old real quick, but he was still the guy (McNair would later bolt for Baltimore in the summer).  So why take Young here?  Hmmmm.  I still think if Fisher doesn’t take Young at #3 he drops down far on the board.

Let’s now look at the-next-great-thing in Reggie Bush (at least at the time).  There were murmurs that Reggie’s dynamic ability was not going to translate to the NFL because the game is so much faster.  That Reggie broke too many runs outside and attempted to out-run the defense for positive yards.  In the NFL, RBs gotta take positive yards when they can by not dancing around too much or they will get swarmed under quickly.  I figured Reggie would adjust and still be the dynamic guy in the NFL, so in my mind, the Texans should take him.  I was wrong, but not surprised I was.

Mario Williams became the Texans’ man.  Not a shocker.  But it was just hard to imagine a GM taking a DE from North Carolina State over two flashy-dynamic-overly-hyped-offensive-guys from huge programs like USC and Texas.  Wow.  I still tip my cap to Charlie Casserly for listening to his own people and understanding what is best for his team when everyone else (fans & media) wanted the sizzle in Bush & Young. Check out this snippet from Wikipedia about Mario Williams (2005 NC St):

During the 2005 season, he started 12 games, recording 62 total tackles with 24 tackles for loss, 14.5 sacks, 15 hurries, a safety and a blocked kick. He maintained a 3.68 grade point average and according to reports, he would often be seen studying in the library on Friday and Saturday nights.

[yeah, I know Wiki is 90% fact, 10% wtf, but I got faith this time]

Williams was actually a year younger than most his age because he graduated from High School early to attend college.  Yeah, smart dude.  Quite the contrary from the Vince Young Wonderlic test chatter.  Not saying Young isn’t smart, just find the big difference interesting.

Right, wrong, reach, value, production … are all words that can be used to figure which team got the most bang for their buck.  So who did?

Vince had a solid rookie campaign with the Titans.  But season two we saw an alarming 9-17 TD/INT ratio.  Season three was hopeless because Vince sustained a sprained left knee, bruised ego, and then had to play cheerleader to Kerry Collins because the Titans were on a serious winning roll.  And oh yeah, there was the whole suicide circus (no need to go into all that).  In 2009, Collins kept the starter spot to begin the season but would drop the first six games opening the door for Young to take the spot back.  Young played well for the rest of the season, but the weak schedule did help.  Which leads us to now.  2010 is gonna be a huge season for Vince, most likely determining if he will stay a Titan or not.

Reggie Bush’s numbers speak volumes about his worth.  With 581 yds as his highest rushing total, it shows Reggie is not an every down back.  With his games played number at 16 only in his first year, tells you he’s likely not to play every game in a season.  Then toss in that his numbers from scrimmage declined from 2008-2009, and all of a sudden it seems Reggie is not gonna be the player everyone had hoped for.  With guys like LT and Westbrook getting let go after 9 & 8 years, it is not looking good for a part-time RB that is on year five.  Now, you can say the Saints got to the Super Bowl because Reggie was a key part, no doubt.  But it seems to me you can get guys in the draft to do the same things Reggie does for far less.

Mario Williams has steadily improved each season until 2009′s injuries slowed him down.  Unlike the previous two guys, Mario has been able to play every game of his career so far.  Never benched, always a full-time guy.  Was tied with DeMarcus Ware (pretty good pass rusher) for 3rd in sacks in 2007, and in 2008 was tied for 7th in sacks with Justin Tuck.  But ironically, while the other two guys have been in the playoffs, the Texans and Williams are still looking for their shot.  The Texans seem to be a player or two away from making a big run, 2010 could be there year.

Wow.  So what did we learn from this large pot of NFL data and analysis?  How about this …

• Charlie Casserly made the right call for Houston in 2006.
• Reggie Bush’s future in New Orleans is in doubt.   Do the Saints wanna invest more in him even though he’s not an every down guy?
• Vince Young is on the verge of becoming a career backup if he cannot put together a solid weekly performance as a pocket-passing starter (because his legs won’t bail him out forever).  Maybe he should have a chat with Donovan McNabb?
• Another successful season rushing the passer sounds very likely for Mario Williams in 2010.
• The NFL Draft always makes for interesting drama, the day of, and years after.

The Rams, Lions, Bucs have the top three picks this year.  And according to Scout’s Inc — here are the top prospects:

The Rams need a QB, let’s see if they reach for one.

stats & scout’s inc list — ripped from espn.com

Tags: houston texans, mario williams, New Orleans Saints, NFL Draft, reggie bush, tennessee titans, vince young