The Sports Brewery

Oregon To Remain No. 1 In BCS – Bowl Projections

Posted on 14. Nov, 2010 at 2:08 am by Braga in Big 10 Football, Boise State Football, California Golden Bears, Football, NCAA Football, Oregon Ducks Football, PAC-10 Football, Top 25 College Football Poll

BCS Guru, which, as opposed to ESPN’s Brad Edwards, has been correct in its projections all season lists the Oregon Ducks as the nation’s No. 1 team when the new BCS rankings are released tomorrow at 5:15 P.M. on ESPN.

Oregon, which barely survived 15-13 at Berkeley this week, sits at 10-0 on the season with a much-needed bye week on deck before they host Arizona the day after Thanksgiving.

The Ducks, frankly, played their worst game since the Boise City loss last year, but somehow came out of Strawberry Canyon with a win. The offensive line wasn’t good, the play calling was suspect, the kicker was off target for the first time all year, and yet they remain undefeated mostly due to Brock Mansion’s inability to complete a pass. After the first series in which Cal RB Shane Vareen gashed the Oregon defense, the Ducks loaded the box and forced Mansion to hurt them, something he apparently can’t do.

Give credit to the defense for forcing a huge turnover on a Vareen run in the 3rd quarter that Oregon quickly turned into their only offensive TD in the game. It was the only way Oregon’s offense was going to be able to score and the defense stepped up and got it done. Also give credit to Cliff Harris who scored his fifth TD with his fourth punt return TD of the season. Sometimes a team’s defense and special teams must win games, and they got it done.

Not to let Oregon’s offense off the hook; however, because they played truly awful. Not just compared to how they’ve played this season, but to how any offense should play when they’re the No. 1 team in the nation. The most shocking part of it was the terrible play calling by Chip Kelly. Much has been made the last couple weeks about how Oregon likes to run tempo and will sometimes run the same play twice in a row just to get a snap off quickly, but Kelly would not give up on the same run plays despite their lack of effectiveness. One could almost predict it: dive play, speed option followed by a screen pass. If I could predict it, you know Cal could. There’s only so many times you can go to the LMJ-run-around-in-a-circle well.  Also surprising was the amount of penalties. The lack of discipline is something Oregon hasn’t really dealt with this season. Seemingly endless holding penalties every time Oregon would get a big play on offense. They finished with eight for 62 yards. Part of that was due to some very questionable officiating, but a hold’s a hold.

However, a win’s also a win, which Oregon escaped with.

People keep bringing up Alabama’s win over Tennessee last year like it has something to do with how Oregon played against Cal. It’s the same as bringing up Boise City’s win over Oregon last year. Your logic is flawed – Apples and oranges. It’s a different year and they’re different teams in different conferences, so it doesn’t make any sort of sense to compare them. 

Oregon did get help this week; however, which will keep them at No.1.

No. 2 Auburn (11-0, 7-0) struggled for most of their game against Georgia before controlling the 4th quarter and getting a 49-31 win. Georgia jumped out to an early lead behind their freak of a WR AJ Green, but couldn’t stop obvious Heisman winner and money soliciter Cam Newton. The Auburn defense looked worse than Oregon’s offense, which is saying a lot, but at least the Auburn defense is consistent.

TCU (11-0, 7-0) also struggled against San Diego State. They jumped out to a comfortable halftime lead, but lost the second half 21-6 to barely hang on to a 40-35 win. Their defense, which hadn’t given up more than seven points in a game since their Sept. 24 game against SMU, got torched by the lowly SDSU offense for 35 points and 262 passing yards.

So what did we learn from our new BCS top 5?

Oregon: The Ducks can win a game against a bad team with defense and special teams when their offense plays terrible. LaMichael James’s Heisman hopes are done, unless Newton is ruled ineligible in the next month. He did play a pretty gutty game; however, considering he got zero blocking from his line. The Register-Guard’s Rob Moseley tweeted after game that LMJ was in a protective boot and on crutches during his post-game interview. I’ve been told that this is a precautionary thing. There were pictures online of James walking around shaking hands after the game, so he should be fine. Luckily for Oregon they have the bye.

Not so much.

Auburn: Nothing. Auburn always has no defense and relies totally on Cam Newton to win, which isn’t a diss. The dude is amazing.

TCU: Their defense struggled in a letdown game, but they remain undefeated at 11-0 with wins over Oregon State and Utah, which both lost this week to terrible teams.

Boise City: They can beat a football team in a basketball arena in Idaho. They still have wins over Virginia Tech and OSU, which look more and less impressive respectively. Their field is blue. They’re proven.

LSU: They totally dominated a Bye team that hasn’t won a game all season. Not much to learn from a game like that. Wait, they played a real team? Louisiana what?

Bowl Projections:

BCS National Championship Game: Auburn (BCS No. 1) vs. Oregon  (BCS No. 2)

Both teams control their own destinies. Auburn’s road to the natty title is a rough one. They still play Alabama in the Iron Bowl and must face South Carolina, which dismantled Florida this week, in the SEC title game. Oregon has their huge game with Arizona at home and then travels to Corvallis for the Civil War, which is always dicey, but less dicey than ‘bama and ‘SC.

Rose Bowl: TCU (At-large) vs. Wisconsin (Big Ten Champion)

With Oregon in the title game, the Rose Bowl must select the top non-AQ team to replace the Pac-10′s representative, which as of now would be TCU. If TCU wins out they would remain ahead of Boise City, which might be left out of the BCS bowl picture as a result. Obviously the Big Ten is out of the title game picture, so the top team from the conference would be in the Rose. Wisconsin holds the tie breakers in the remaining log jam that is the top of the Big Ten. All they have to do it beat Michigan and Northwestern. Eesh.

Fiesta Bowl: Nebraska (Big 12 Champion) vs. Pittsburgh (Big East Champion)

Pitt isn’t good, but they’re the best team in the Big East, which is the biggest problem with the BCS bowl structure as it is. They have no business in a BCS game, but get the automatic bid by winning their awful conference. Nebraska has looked really good most of the year. They had a terrible outing against a Texas team which all of a sudden remembered they were Texas, only to forget the rest of the season. They should win the Big 12, but have to beat Texas A&M, Colorado and the conference title game first.

Orange Bowl: Ohio State (At-large) vs. Virginia Tech (ACC Champion)

Virginia Tech, despite losing two awful games to start the season are the clear favorite at this point to win the ACC and get the automatic bid in the Orange. Ohio State, despite not getting the Rose Bowl bid, looks good enough on paper to earn the at-large from the Orange. They still have to beat Iowa and Michigan to get there.

Sugar Bowl: Boise City (At-large) vs. LSU (At-large)

Well, somebody will have to take Boise City to keep the FBI off of Bill Hancock’s ass. If the Orange takes Ohio State, which is obviously the more attractive choice of the two in both potential money and tradition, then the Sugar will likely take Boise and one-loss LSU, which will sneak in despite not playing in the SEC title game. LSU still has to play Arkansas, a team that almost beat Alabama and did beat South Carolina convincingly. Why LSU and Boise over Stanford you might ask? Well, you’re basically comparing wins. Stanford’s only win over a ranked team was Arizona, while LSU beat four ranked teams (Alabama, Florida, West Virginia and North Carolina) and their only loss came to No. 2 Auburn. Boise City beat Oregon State and Virginia Tech who were both ranked at the time. Both more than Stanford. Obviously Stanford’s schedule is MUCH tougher, and it’s up to the bowls to decide when faced with at large situations, but there it is. Boise would travel better than Stanford and more people would watch the game on TV. Truth hurts, Stanford, you didn’t even sell out your stadium against Arizona. A lot can, and probably will, change with this bowl match up in the next few weeks.

My Top Ten:

1. Oregon

2. Auburn

3. Boise City

4. TCU

5. LSU

6. Wisconsin

7. Stanford

8. Ohio State

9. Nebraska

10. Oklahoma State

Tags: Alex Braga, Auburn Tigers, BCS, big 12, Big Ten, Boise State Broncos, Bowl Projections, Cal Bears, Cam Newton, Chip Kelly, LSU Tigers, Nebraska Cornhuskers, Ohio State Buckeyes, Oregon Ducks, Pac-10, Pitt Panthers, SEC, TCU Horned Frogs, Virginia Tech