Overall Record: 3-0

Oregon State @ TCU -13.5

A tough road game for the Beavers to start off the season and with high expectations coming into the season the pressure will be on from the get go. I have been trying to make an excuse for why I should bet on the Beavers, they are returning 16 starters from last year, they return both Rodgers brothers and frankly because they’re from Oregon. But every time I think the Beavers will cover I go back to the same thing, QB Ryan Katz. All Beaver lovers have been saying they won’t lose a thing with Katz replacing Canfield who had a monster year last year, but I am not one of those people. I just see TCU’s top rated Defense being to much for Katz and Beavers. So look for TCU to come out and try and stop Jacquizz from the first snap and make Katz beat them, and if I’m right about him that should be enough for TCU’s offense to put this game out of reach.

Washington +3 @ BYU

I honestly can’t believe that I am going to take the Huskies, but you have to remember to never bet with your heart so I will begrudgingly take the lowly Dawgs as 3 point underdogs. Just looking over everything and this actually looks like the best bet of the day. The Huskies return 18 starters from last season including the messiah himself Jake Locker, but the person that I think will set the tone for what the Huskies will be this year is Keith Polk who ran for over 1,000 last season and should only get better with a more experienced offensive line. I am worried about the shaky Husky D, but with gunslinger Max Hall now in the NFL BYU’s O just isn’t as scary as it once was. Toss in that they have only 4 returning players on D it will only take a decent effort out of the Husky D to get this win.

Thought it was a Husky cheerleader...My Bad

Western Michigan @ Michigan State -24

This was an easy choice to make. A not very good MAC team going to a decent Big10 team for the first game of the year, should be an easy win. Add in that Western Michigan lost it’s starting Qb and top 2 RB’s and even this terrible Sparty D should have no problem keeping the Broncos under 10 points. All returning Qb Kirk Cousins (19 TD-9 INT) has to do is not turn the ball over and Sparty should have no problem putting up the needed points to get the cover. This game is going to be so boring to watch that I’m tempted to not even bet it so I don’t even have to look at the box score for the game.

Syracuse -7.5 @ Akron

Another game I am reluctant to bet on because it will be an unwatchable game, but 7.5 points is just to low to not play. The Cuse were terrible last year, but the best thing that could have happened to them did, Greg Paulus is no longer their Qb. Paulus was a joke of a QB last year and in the sheer fact that he is no longer their QB means that the Orangemen now have a chance to score some points. Lets also look at the Zips O who last year ranked 111th and now this year they dont even have their top RB (Even though he ran for a robust 244 yards last season). You take that shitty O against a Cuse D who is returning 10 starters and I see no way that Akron will score more than 6 points on offense. Lets just hope whoever they bring in at QB will not throw a couple pick 6′s and this game should be locked by half time.

There are no hot Syracuse Cheerleader pictures so you get just a random busty cheerleader

Minnesota -3 @ Middle Tennessee State

The Golden Gophers are returning 9 starters from their offense including quarterback Adam Weber, they lost top receiver Eric Decker but with so many returnees their O shouldn’t lose a step. The Gophers D isn’t much to talk about, but with the suspension of Middle Tennessee QB Dwight Dasher the Blue Raiders lost their 1 big play maker. So expect the Gophers to get a nice early lead then do what Big10 teams do best and pound the ball the rest of the game.

South Carolina -13.5 Vs Southern Mississippi

The old ball coach at home to start the season with 15 returning starters, how can you pass that up. Returning 8 on O including QB Stephen Garcia, top 2 RB’s and the leading receiver. If that wasn’t enough they return 7 players from the 15th ranked D last year going up against a Southern Miss team that only returns 4 offensive starters from last year. They do get 9 back on defense, but if the old ball coach can get that offense working early and get Southern Misses inexperienced O needing to score I can see a defensive TD or 2.

Pitt @ Utah Over 49.5

I’m taking into account that it’s the first game of the year and either it will be a sloppy low scoring game or a ton of points will be put on the board, and I’m going to hope for the latter. Pitt was a scoring machine last year early in the season and if they can find some QB play to go along with stud RB Dion Lewis and top returning receiver Jonathan Baldwin they should have no problem putting up some points, especially since Utah is only returning 4 starters on D. Utah’s offense on the other hand looks like they will be able to do some things. They did lose top receiver David Reed, but return a QB who had 11 TD’s to 5 picks and 1000 yard back Eddie Wide. I’ll be watching and hoping that both teams just march it up and down the field and keep it close so they don’t stop passing.

I’ll let 50 tell what I think about this bet.

Pick 3

Races 6-8

Race 6: The first leg of the pick 3 is a tough Optional Claimer going a mile over the turf, but why I like this race to start off my tickets is I plan on beating the favorites and getting some price right out of the gate. My top choice is the 7 Bran Jammas who’s morning line odds of 5-1 is the perfect kind of horse to play. He has won 2 straight going this distance over turf and even though his 83 and 82 beyers don’t look that great he ran much better than those numbers. The other angle that I love with him is Del Mar is known for being very friendly to horses that close from behind and with what I expect to be a hot pace out front he will have a great chance to mow them down late. The other Horse I’ll being playing is the 3 Enumclaw Girl. She is one of the horses that will be up on the lead and I’m hoping that jockey Rafael Bejarano won’t have her dueling with the other 2 speed horses and has her sitting right behind them ready to pounce when the time comes.

Race 7: The 7th is a interesting looking maiden special with a bunch of so-so looking horses. The 3 Mama Bouche and 5 Go On Babe are the two favorites who both happened to be trained by the same trainer Bob Baffert who is known for having really good young horses. I’d be a fool not to play them both, but the one that I’m most interested in is the 4 Vindicated Ghost. She is a first time starter out of the monster Vindication sire and with some decent morning works and a 15-1 morning line I’d rather take a shot with her that with some of the other horses.

Race 8: My pick 3′s will end with the Oceanside Stakes going a mile over the turf. There are 3 horses that I will play, but 1 that I will play more. The 3 Twirling Candy looks like he can be an absolute monster and if you don’t believe me go back to my May 10th picks where I isoed him saying I thought he would crush and he went out and won by 7 3/4 lengths. The only reason why I’m not jumping all over this horse for a huge win bet is that it’s his first time going long and his first time running on turf so logic tells me not to trust him 100%, because of that I will also play 2 other horses the 6 Macias and the 7 Domonation. Macias is a stakes winning horse who loves turf the only problem is that he loves being on the lead and Twirling Candy is just to fast for him so look for Macias to be right behind Twirling Candy and if the distance and surface are to much for him he will be right there. The other horse Domonation is also trying turf for the first time, but that shouldn’t be a problem since he is bred to love the grass. I’ve played Domonation almost every time he has ran so I know he can compete with these 2 horses and with his running style of being a closer fits in great at Del Mar and if Twirling and Macias get into a speed duel look for Domonation to come clean them up late.

For these 3 races I will play 2 separate tickets. The numbers are the number the horse is entered as.

3,7/3,4,5/3,6,7- Cost $18 per ticket but I’ll play it for $2. Total $36

7/3,4,5/3,7- Cost $6 per ticket but I’ll play it for $5. Total $30

Last year’s winner Mark Ingram is the obvious odds on fave to win again. And I’m sure he’ll be going back to NYC as a finalist simply because Alabama is gonna be kickin ass again this fall.

So who is gonna emerge in 2010 to swipe the prize away from the front-running Ingram?

I very much like a QB this season. You got the 2 PAC-10 guys (still the PAC-10 until 2012) Locker and Luck. Jacory Harris in Miami is due for a big year. You know Casey Keenum and Kellen Moore will drop big numbers on their stat sheets, especially because of their competition. And I just don’t know much about highly-rated Ryan Mallett of Arkansas, didn’t follow any Razorback games last fall.

As much as I’d like to think LaMichael James has a chance of getting an invite to the prestigious NYC ceremony, it just isn’t gonna happen.  Not in a season with a potential QB controversy hanging over the Ducks offense each week.

Oh yeah, let’s not forget about that big kid in Ohio State, uh what’s his name … oh, Terrelle Pryor. Mr. Pryor decided to play up to his potential in January’s Rose Bowl game to the dismay of Oregon’s defense. I’m sure Mr. Pryor will play with a lot more confidence in 2010. But I don’t see him grabbing the trophy, mostly because he is not gonna go thru the schedule without a real turd or two of a game.

My money is on Stanford’s Andrew Luck.  Without workhorse Toby Gerhart around stealing passing plays away from the gunslinger anymore, I think the kid could put up some killer numbers this fall.

No more jabber, let’s go to the odds from Vegas:

Pick 4, Races 6-9, Cost $45

Race 6: Gonna start the pick 4 using 3 horses. The 5 Victory Dash will offer the best price and hopefully the drop will help, the 6 Dish the Dirt looks the best and should crush this weak field, and also the 9 Costa Marta just finished 2nd at this level 3 weeks ago and should improve off that.

Race 7: The 7th is a wide open allowance race so I’m going to take 5 of the 8 horses. I’ll use the 2 My Maloof Rocker, 4 El Nadia, 5 Surfer Girl, 6 Entanabi and the 8 Always in Style. It will be a bad beat if I don’t get through this leg with 5.

Race 8: The Grade 3 Affirmed Stakes looks to be won by 1 of 3 horses. The 1 Skipshot has the fields best beyer and will show some tactical speed, the 2 Golden Itiz just smashed horses last out by 11 lengths and will try to get the lead and hold the lead, the last pick is the 6 Alphie’s Bet who has already won 2 stakes races in his career and will be trying to get them late.

Race 9: Taking a little risk with my iso in the last. Going to let it ride on the 3 Honour Family. Is the ML 3rd choice at 5-1 so there is value here and this field is just awful so the risk will be worth the reward.

Churchill Downs

Pick 3 Races 8-10, Cost $6 (I’ll play mine for $5 so $30)

Race 8: Gonna start the Pick 3 with my iso. 4 Colizeo looks to be the lone speed, couple that with Garret Gomez as the jockey and Todd Pletcher as the trainer and this horse will have the best possible chance to take this race.

Race 9: Gonna try and catch some price in this leg so going to take 3 horses. The 4 Joharmony, 8 It’s Tea Time and the 11 Beautician. The 4 and 8 look to be the 2 pace setters so hopefully we should get a good sweat at least and maybe the 11 mows them down late.

Race 10: For the Grade 1 Stephen Foster Stakes I’m going to use 2 horses. The favorite  2 Battle Plan looks to be the strong favorite as he will take this bunch around the track at whatever pace he decides to set and if not hopefully the 5 Arson Squad can get back into form and get it done.

Hollywood Park

Pick 3 Races 2-4, Cost $8 (I’ll play it for $5 so $40)

Race 2: Gonna iso again in the first leg, but in this case I’ll actually have 2 horses. In this instant 2 horses are coupled together as the 1 and the 1A, so if I bet the 1 I get the 1A as well. Not only do I like the 700K first time starter 1 Grove Park, but I also like the 1A Moonlark so isoing in this instance is a no brainer.

Race 3: I’m going to take 2 in this 2nd race. Yet again there are 2 horses coupled and they both look good as well, the 1 Harmonious and the 1A Taro look to be the best in this field, but the reason I’m taking one more is I have a feeling this horse runs a monster race today. The 6 Hasty exits a strong grade 3 stakes race where she was making up a lot of ground late, so adding the extra distance in this race and is also the 2nd race after a long layoff I expect she fires a huge race.

Race 4: The Desert Stormer Handicap looks to be a tough race to end the sequence, but with tough races come better payouts and that’s what I’m expecting here. I’ll use 4 horses the 2 Alpha Kitten, 3 Moon De French, 5 Free Flying Soul and 7 Dance to my Tune. I can see anyone of them winning so why not play them all.

Bet: Pick 4, Cost: Either $27 or $54 depending what you choose in the 10th

Race 8: The 8th is the kind of race that has been screwing me over lately, but I got a good feeling about this Sprint Stakes. I’m going to take the 2 Custom for Carlos, 3 Bribon, and the 8 Checklist. Carlos and Bribon are the 2 classy horses of the field and both should be in the hunt to take this race. The only way I see neither of them winning is if Checklist gets out on the lead and just doesn’t give in. So at least it will be exciting to watch hoping that Checklist can hold on to win, but don’t expect it.

Race 9: The 9th race will offer the best chance for catching some price in this pick 4. The 2 Tanda, 6 Amen Hallelujah, and 10 Tidal pool offer good price but a close bet field. I have played Tanda multiple times running in So Cal and horses that run on synthetic and go to dirt always seem to love it. I’ve also played Amen Hallelujah multiple times at So Cal and he’s looking to have the most upside. Then Tidal Pool should like this cut back in distance for her and should be real live.

Race 10: For the 10th I give you the option to take either 1 or 2 depending on how much you want to spend. If you want to spend more like I am I am going to use the 1 Gio Ponti and the 6 Court Vision otherwise the play is isoing Gio Ponti. Gio Ponti is the clear Iso in this sequence, coming out of the $10 mill Dubai World Cup race where he finished 4th, he also has 5 Stakes win including 4 Grade 1 stakes in his career and should crush this field. If for some reason Gio gets a tough trip I’m also going to take Court Vision. Court Vision is just another Stakes veteran like Gio Ponti the only difference between them is Gio gets the wins while Court gets 2nd. Whatever way you go is a good play.

Race 11: For the Belmont I’m going to use 3 horses. 4 Make Music for Me, 6 Ice Box, and the 11 First Dude. I’ve never been more sure that one of these 3 horses will win the Belmont. I would only use Ice Box and First Dude but they are the top 2 favorites so I threw in Make Music For Me who has a real shot at winning this race because it’s a mile and a half. So if my ticket is still alive to this race it’s time tot start count money.

I’ve been giving my picks without really realizing that most people don’t understand what I say when giving them so I’ll give a quick tutorial first so most people can follow along better.

Most of my picks are usually pick 3′s and 4′s. Pick 3′s start in almost every race. What they are is everyone that bets that pick 3 all the money go’s into a pool and that’s what everyone who bet it is playing for. What you need to do is pick correctly the winner of the next 3 races and however many people pick them correctly chop what is in the pool. For my picks I usually give multiple horses that I like and will play, but by doing that you have to pay more since it’s the same as playing a bunch of individual tickets. For example if I want to take 4 horses in the 1st race, 3 in the 2nd and 1 in the 3rd it cost $12. 4x3x1 is how I will show it. It’s the same as making all separate tickets that are 1x1x1 for all the different combinations I want to play.

The pick 4 is the same, but the pool is a lot bigger. At So Cal tracks they will guarantee that at least 250k will be in the pool so a lot more people play it and the pays are a lot bigger. But for pick 4′s you have to pick 4 races correctly to win. If anyone has any questions about horse racing just post them in the comment section and I can anwser them.

All right back to business. I’ll give picks for a pick 3 and a pick 4

Pick 3, Races 3-5, Cost $12

Race 3: The first race for the pick 3 is a tough one, but I hope to get i with only 1 horse. The 6 Isle of Giants has been facing better, cuts back to a shorter distance and goes up against a race with no early speed. He should either have the lead or be right off it, but either way he should have it down the home stretch.

Race 4: The 4th is a tough looking Maiden Special with a lot of expensive horses in it. The 4,5,7 all cost around 200k so this should be a classy field. For betting purposes I’ll go with the 1 Lunada Bay, 4 Tiz Golden, 5 Loro and 7 Farallone. I wouldn’t be surprised if the 4 smashes this field as the favorite, but there are too many good connections to not play the others. If you want to play a small ticket taking just the 4 would be a good play.

Race 5: The 5th is like the 4th in that there are a lot of really expensive horses in it. The 1 cost over 500k, the over 300k and the 15 250k. But I’ll take the 1 Utopian, 9 Royal FJ and 13 Isle of Prado. I hate that I have to play the 9 as he will go off as the favorite and he has finished 2nd 5 times out of 7 races, usually I stay away from these losers but he looks to good here.

Pick 4, Races 7-10, Cost $40

Race 7: This is a hard to handicap race. There are a couple horses that have been running against better and there are some that have never run on turf so I’ll need to take 5. The 1 Greenwhich Park, 4 Hasty Trend, 6 Uncle Jeep, 9 Journeyman and 10 Partywithlarryz. I have no idea who will win but for the price I like Journeyman to wire.

Race 8: The 8th will be my iso with the 5 Twirling Candy. He has only run 1 career race but it was a monster race. This will be his first test against winners so I dont know how he will handle other horses that are fast, but he he can run like he can he should run away in this race.

Race 9: The 9th is the Grade 1 Gamely Stakes. Some monster turf runners have entered this race so I’ll need to spread to get through. The 1 Gotta Have Her, 3 Forever Together, 4 Tuscan Evening and 5 Well Monied . It’s a toss up which horses shows up but I hope whoever pays out the best wins. For anyone who doesn’t watch horse racing or is bored I suggest checking this race out.

Race 10. The final race is just an awful low level maiden race which has the makings of screwing up this ticket. There are a bunch of first time runners and some that are just terrible. So I’ll reluctantly go with the 6 Harmony’s Hope and the 14 Dos Veinte. If I get to this race I’ll close my eyes because I dont want to watch some shitty horse steal the win for me.

Here’s the question: which favorite would you rather have in the conference finals right now, Los Angeles Lakers or Orlando Magic?  The odds makers have the Lake Show paying a little worse to win the series than the Magic, so in the eyes of the gambling world the Lakers are the better pick to win.  However, we know the line shifts in accordance to where the money is, so it’s up for debate. 

I agree with the line, the Lakers are less likely to be upset than the Magic.  So, the bet is that I have the Lakers and Celtics and my opponent has the Magic and Suns, because he/she/it thinks the Magic are more likely to win their series.  If our teams make it to the finals, we win.  If the favorites win, it’s just a push.  Both dogs will not win, so let’s not even go there.

I chose the Lakers because they have 3 giants who are all skilled underneath and they have Kobe.  And the Zen factor.  The Suns certainly match up better than Utah did last round, but I still don’t think it’s going to be all that great of a series. 

So where does your money lie?  Did I make a good bet, or bad bet?